Understanding Flush Percentages: Don't Overvalue Suited Cards!

Betting Strategy, Poker Odds
June 28 2008

A common error made by a number of beginner poker players is overvaluing suited cards. Anyone who has ever played mediocre cards "because they were suited" has made this error.

To play suited cards right you have to know the odds behind hitting your flush on certain flops because you’re only going to flop a flush 0.84 percent of the time. That’s less than once every 100 times! Without knowing the correct odds, you’ll likely end up chasing flush draws that you should be folding, and, in the long run, costing yourself a ton of cash.

Here are some of the more common flush draw percentages that you should try to commit to memory to make calculating your odds easier and faster:

If you’re holding suited hole cards, your percentage of…

• Flopping a flush – 0.84%
• Flopping a flush draw – 10.90%
• Flopping a three-card flush draw (two needed to complete) – 41.60%
• Making a flush by the river – 6.40%
• Seeing a suited flop – 5.2%
• Seeing a rainbow flop (all different suits) – 40.00%

On the turn, if you’re four cards to a flush…

• You will hit your flush – 19%

On the river, if you’re four cards to a flush…

• You will hit your flush – 20%

One of the more important numbers in that list is the 6.4 percent chance of making a flush when you have suited hole cards. Remember that the next time you think about playing any two hole cards just because they are suited.

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